In 2014, when Business Insider's Military &Defense team got together to guess the state of the world a year down the line, we thought we were embarking on a slightly embarrassing endeavor.
It turns out several of our predictions were correct.
ISIS proved it could strike beyond its "caliphate" by bombing a Russian passenger jet and carrying out multiple attacksinside a European capital as well as inspiring several "lone wolf" attacks.
Meanwhile, Iran signed a landmark nuclear deal in July that has the potential to reshape the Middle East and the larger issue of global nuclear-arms control.
Here are 15 big geopolitical events that we think are in store for 2016.